What I’ve noticed about the market~

Market statistics don’t tell the whole story. This has been my experience.

All over the Triangle

It started sometime last summer/fall. The phone started ringing and the emails coming. Clients that I’ve followed up with for a long time (some even years) were getting their homes under contract and coming to the Triangle to find their new home. The tide was turning from a sellers market. If you watch the video from the Triangle MLS and appraiser Stacy Anfindsen you will see that the market statistics confirm my experiences but they also mention that the Triangle is composed of many different market pockets. Demand is really determined by inventory, especially new home inventory.

In Chatham County there is quite a bit of new construction in the $300,000-$500,000 range so it has hurt resale values.

In the Chapel Hill school district there is very little new construction and the resale inventory is down. It’s a hot market for a home that is well priced, in good condition and staged to sell.

In the Durham area close to Chapel Hill it still seems to be a sellers market to me.

Cary has a great new homes market and resales are doing well too.

Real estate has always been local and now it’s more local than ever.

Here is a link to a detailed report with graphs for the 2012 Chapel Hill and the Triangle market statistics

1st Quarter 2012 listing inventory

2012, First Quarter Market Statistics Summary from the Triangle MLS

Market statistics-Jobs

Based upon 2/12 figures released by the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, the combined workforce
in the Durham and Raleigh/Cary MSA’s was 835,988. This was a 3.37% increase from the workforce seen at the end of
2/11. The unemployment rate in the MSA decreased to 8.2% from 8.7%.

Interest rates

The national average for the following products comparing 3/12 with 3/11 are as follows; 15 year fixed rate mortgage is
3.5% v 4.4%, 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 4.3% v 5.1% and the 1 year ARM is 3.2% v 3.6%.

Market statistics-Inventory

There were 9,765 active listings at quarter end within the four main counties. This was a decrease of 27% compared to
1Q/11 inventory levels. New home inventory decreased 25% and re-sale inventory decreased 27%. There were 8,478
new listings entered into the system during the quarter. This was an 8% decrease compared to new listings entered into
the system during 1Q/11. Listings where the status was changed from active to withdrawn decreased by 23% and listings
where the status was changed from active to expired decreased by 31%. March withdrawn and expired listings accounted
for 9% of total inventory. There were 3,952 listings where the current list price was dropped from the original list
price during the quarter. The price dropping sellers account for 40% of quarter end listings. March 2011 price drops accounted
for 44% of current inventory.

Market statistics-Distressed Inventory

Listings that were marked with a special conditions category related to financial issues accounted for 9% of quarter end
inventory, up from 8% at quarter end, 2011.

Market statistics-Showings

There were 173,186 showings during the quarter. This was an 11% increase compared to 1Q/11 showings.

Market statistics-Pending Sales

There were 4,322 listings taken off the market during the quarter with a status changed to pending. This was an increase
of 22% compared to 1Q/11. March pending sales accounted for 18% of quarter end inventory. 3/11 pending sales accounted
for 11% of quarter end inventory.

Market statistics-Closed Sales

There were 3,647 closed sales within the four county market during the quarter. This was an increase of 20% compared
to 1Q/11. Financial concessions were paid in 55% of closed transactions and 19% of the closings were financed as
cash. The average days on market (LADOM) was 132, compared to 125 during 1Q/11.
The average sales price during the quarter was $223,800, a 2% decrease compared to the average in 1Q/11. The average
sales price of a re-sale was $210,700, a decrease of 1% compared to 1Q/11.

Market statistics-Current Supply

The current supply of all housing within the four main counties based upon first quarter closings is 8 months, a decrease
from the 13 month supply at the end of 1Q/11. 5% of quarter end inventory had an under supply of housing and 56% had
an over supply.
Most of the news on this page is positive. The employed workforce is increasing, interest rates have decreased, inventory
has decreased, showings have gone up, pending and closed sales are up.

Chapel Hill and Carrboro

Often I get the question asking “Where is Carrboro in relation to Chapel Hill?” I had the same question when I moved to Chapel Hill many years ago. I had to go to Carrboro to get my NC drivers license so I filled my car up with gas and asked at the service station how far it was. He looked at me like puzzled so I asked again, how far to Carrboro?
As it turned out I was about 10 feet from Carrboro. The towns are distinct municipalities but Chapel Hill flows seamlessly into Carrboro, just oss the railroad tracks and you’re there!

Are Carrboro and Chapel Hill very different?

When you take a closer look at the two towns you do see a difference.(I’m talking about the downtown, not the neighborhood areas) Chapel Hill is a little more upscale in a sort of laid back way. The large historic homes are in Chapel Hill and UNC is a beautiful campus.

UNC~Beautiful Campus

Carrboro was a mill town and the old mill, Carr Mill, is the center of activity in the town. People gather in front of Weaver Street Market to enjoy the outdoors and socialize.

The lawn at Weaver Street Market

Small mill houses and even 60′s ranches are more pricey than you would expect because Carrboro has  a special feeling that many people love.

Carrboro is often described as more funky and is well-loved for its quirkiness although one of my clients described it as seedy and wasn’t sure about driving through to get to his new home. I think it’s all about feeling and where you are coming from.

Carrboro Mill House

Chapel Hill and Carrboro have a reputation as being more liberal than the rest of the Triangle but in an area so large you will be able to find people like you no matter what your politics.
I made this video to give you an idea of what it is like to drive down Franklin Street from Chapel Hill to Carrboro. Visit my Chapel Hill Neighborhoods site to read and see more about Chapel Hill and Carrboro neighborhoods.

Acre lot

10011 Hammock Bend is located on a beautiful one acre lot in Governors Forest just 10 minutes from Chapel Hill, Jordan Lake, Southpointe Mall and I-40.

Enjoy the pool and walk through the neighborhood and be amazed at all of the nature in the Jordan Lake area. There are playgrounds for the children along with tennis courts and a pond just a couple of minutes away in Governors Park.

Shopping and other businesses are located in Governors Village just down the street.

Golf memberships are available in Governors Club, a Jack Nicklaus designed course.

The Triangle Market is Improving

Sold house

Every month the Triangle MLS publishes a new market report. Both December and January have shown signs of an improving market.

It’s still a buyers market but the pendulum is starting to swing. in January 2012 pending sales in the Triangle were up 29% from January 2011. Closed sales were up 7%, inventory was down 23% and showings were up 10%.

It seemed to me that the market improvement started sometime in the summer. The houses that have been selling are the ones priced best but as inventory is absorbed this is changing. I am starting to see multiple offers in popular neighborhoods and I have buyers waiting and watching for the right house to come up.

They say you can’t see the bottom until it has passed and I think we are on an upswing now. This could change if banks step up forclosures so we’ll just have to wait and see.

 Summary from the Triangle MLS

2012, January Summary
What about inventory metrics during the month?
Inventory was down 23%, the number of distressed properties on the market were down 15%, houses listed during the
month were down 2% and the number of price dropping sellers decreased 34%.
What about showing, pending and closed sale metrics?
January showings were up 10%, pending sales were up 30% and closed sales were up 7%.
Does the above mean we have turned the corner?
Still too early to tell, but the amount of positive metrics is a good sign. A key item to remember is that the market was still
recovering from a post tax incentive hangover during the first six months of last year. I would hope that metrics during
the first six months of this year will be superior to those seen during the same period a year ago. That being said, do not
take a positive performance for granted. Think about what the market would be like if January metrics were below those
of a year ago….
O.K., give me the bad news…
Both the overall average sales price and the average sales price of a re-sale decreased 7% compared to 1/11 averages.
52% of January closed sales had some level of financial concessions paid by the seller. The percentage of 1/11 closings
was 50% and the percentage of 1/09 closings was 34%.
What about the months of supply?
Based upon January closed sales, there is a 10 month supply of housing on the market in the four main counties. This is
a decrease compared to the 14 month supply seen in 1/11. 52% of all price points analyzed have an oversupply (10
months or higher) of housing. While this might seem like a high percentage, the last 3 January’s had 80% or higher of
price points analyzed with an oversupply.
Given the inventory decrease and the pending sales increase, did the odds of selling improve?
Yes they did. Based upon January pending sales, there was a 13% chance of placing a listing under contract during the
month. The percentage based upon 1/11 pending sales was 8%.
What about the rest of this year?
January saw a continuance of positive market trends seen during the last 6 months of 2011. Lower inventory, more
showings, higher pending sales and higher closed sales are metrics that need to continue movement in a positive direction.
The drop in average sales price should continue during the year. A combination of oversupplied price points, fewer
buyers for upper end properties and the fragile psyche of home buyers will continue to produce downward pressure on
prices.
There are two wild cards in our market. The first involves foreclosures. National media have been reporting that large
lenders have re-engineered their foreclosure processes in hopes of breaking up the backlog of pre-foreclosure filings in
the pipeline. Those who were stalled should expect to see filings proceed with the result being a rise in foreclosures.
2011 filings were down in all of the main RTP counties but I would expect an increase in 2012. Current distressed properties
account for 10% of active listings, so for the most part they remain a niche. The second wild card involves Wake
County schools. On January 1, a new choice-based system was employed. This system has advocates and detractors
and many are wondering what its impact will be on the residential market. Since we are no longer able to search for specific
Wake County schools, there will be a lack of hard data to quantify whether the system is being viewed as favorable
or unfavorable.

January 2012 Market Statistics

Home inspections in the Triangle Area of NC can take 4-51/2 hours so I thought I’d show you in about 5 minutes what to expect.

Home inspections in NC are paid for and scheduled by the buyer or buyers agent. Other additional inspections depending on the home might include radon, HVAC, septic and well, termite and wood destroying insects and mold testing.

A home inspection is important even if you are buying a new home.

The NC Real Estate Commission has a publication Questions and Answers on Home Inspections that answers basic questions about inspections.

Governors Club Terrace

A Peek Inside Governors Club ~Chapel Hill Neighborhood                                                                                                                             

 Bill and Gretchen planned a visit to Chapel Hill  this past July to investigate the possibility of moving here. The winters in Ohio are long and they were ready for a change. Bill works from home so they can pretty much live anywhere.

On their second visit a few weeks later they wanted to carefully check out the club and facilities to make sure they would feel comfortable and be happy with the neighborhood.

All listed Governors Club homes

Governors Club Documents
Covenants
ARB Guidelines

Property Owners Assocation Web Site

Triangle Taxes

North Carolina collects taxes on both personal property and real property. Every January residents are required to list personal property such as motor vehicles, boats, and aircraft. The bill will be sent at the same time as personal property bills. Property taxes are due by September 1st and are late with penalty after January 1.

The State requires that counties revalue property every 8 years but some choose do it more often. Chapel Hill usually revalues every 4 years. The tax is based on 100% of the assessed value which is market value determined by a county appraiser. Because the appraiser doesn´t go into the homes and does so many evaluations you shouldn´t use the assessed value as a factor when buying a home. Just ask your Realtor to do a current market analysis for you.

Visit The League of Woman Voters web site for details.

Chapel Hill and Orange County Property Taxes

The real estate market is always changing. Lately it’s been down or stable in most areas of the Triangle.  Supposedly to keeps things fair the State of North Carolina requires real property be reappraised at least every eight years. The tax rate for Chapel Hill and Orange County changes just about every year. The rate goes down when the assessed value goes up.

Every four years properties in Chapel Hill are reassessd and the value adjusted to market. Then the rate is adjusted downward. Every year the rate is adjusted according to the budget needs.

The tax rate is often shown as a percentage per $1.00 of valuation. So for example if the home is valued at $300,000 and the tax rate is 1.50, the yearly taxes would be $4500.

Only the Chapel Hill-Carrboro School District in Orange County collects a special district tax which supplements funds appropriated by the county and state. It is billed and collected at the same time as other county and town property taxes.

Durham Property Tax Rates

It might seem confusing that  in Durham County there are special district taxes for both Chapel Hill and Raleigh. That’s because some areas of Durham have a Chapel Hill or Raleigh address. This really only means that the post office is Chapel Hill or Raleigh. The schools and county services are still Durham.

Chatham County Property Taxes

How to Calculate Taxes from the Wake County Tax, Property and Deeds web site

Ballentine Chapel Hill

A new neighborhood in Chapel Hill

Homes for sale in Ballentine

It takes a long time to get a neighborhood approved in Chapel Hill and Carrboro.  There are only 42 homesites in Ballentine  with homes under construction priced in the 400′s.

Ballentine has a Chapel Hill address but is in the Carrboro municipal district which means it has Carrboro taxes ($1.64 for each dollar of valuation which is market value).

The school district is the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools. Morris Grove Elementary is a new school right down the street. McDougle is the middle school and the high school is Chapel Hill High. These can change so verify here.

The main street in Ballentine is Dairy Glen. The walk score map below will give you an idea of distances but the neighborhood is on an extension of Dairy Glen on the map, it’s just too new to show up.

Closings in the Triangle were up in July compared to last year!

Annual review Triangle MLS

That’s good news but days on the market were up and the trend is up. We can’t really have a turn around until that changes. See this video from the Triangle MLS explaining why.

July 2011 data from the Triangle MLS

At the height of summer, we’re finally beginning to move beyond comparisons to the 2010 incentive market. Even so, sudden changes in sales volumes are likely due to factors occurring at this time last year. Qualified buyers may find more attractive opportunities now than during either of the recent tax credits. Interest rates should hold their ground around five percent, though the shift in the federal credit rating could change that. Some indicators suggest improving conditions, but let’s see just how we’re faring locally.

New Listings in the Triangle region decreased 23.0 percent to 2,992. Pending Sales were up 29.6 percent to 1,914. Inventory levels shrank 15.8 percent to 17,035 units, but consumers are still finding terrific opportunities. Strong affordability is partly driving purchase demand.Prices softened a bit.

The Median Sales Price declined 5.0 percent to $189,900.

Days on Market increased 25.8 percent to 130 days.

Absorption rates slowed as Months Supply of Inventory was up 5.0 percent to 11.0 months.Second quarter GDP growth was just 1.3 percent after a meager 0.4 percent gain in the first quarter.

We added 117,000 new jobs in July, a stronger gain than expected after an embarrassing June. Even though a budget deal has been reached, several challenges persist. Changes to Fannie, Freddie and the mortgage interest deduction are still in play.

As consumers absorb distressed inventory and labor market conditions improve, the wheels of recovery grind on.

Triangle Area Monthly Indicators July 2011